[S/M] Competitive Discussion & Speculation

[Reed]

@Vohras Megas are all but confirmed at this point. A Japanese magazine recently said that Jangmo-o's soundproof will protect him from Mega Gardevoir's hyper voice. They're still using megas in their marketing, and theirs a slot on the bottom of the z ring for a key stone. Even if that isn't it, you could just as easily swap out a Z crystal for a key stone. They're not gonna be scrapping 50+ designs that's silly.

[Vohras]

Really, that's interesting. I'm surprised that they haven't shown any new megas yet then. Well, my mistake. It looks like accelerock is only learned by Lycanroc's midday form, according to the official Sun/Moon website.

[Black117]

It will be interesting to see how Instruct's game mechanics work, especially for a scenario where certain Pokemon can get to +2/+4 in one turn. Definitely such a situation will leave the two Pokemon vulnerable to the opposing targets, but if they don't take the initiative to OHKO the boosted mon, this will change the tide of the game very quickly. Setup is of any kind in doubles is a high risk, high reward, however we can see such doubles-style teams use Oranguru/Smeargle to get boosted enough where they can sweep immediately. Again there's going to be a ton of research for Instruct being done upon release of the games.

As far as "megas" are concern, we only got a magazine post which stats the existences of one mega, though given Game Freak/TCPi's track record on "never" dropping forms they promote, megas will be here to stay. Obviously there's a good portion of people who don't want megas, but its up to their respective battling communities to decide on that matter. Do like the idea of promoting Mega-less Metagames both in Smogon and VGC, though it really depends not just on Pokemon/TCPi/GameFreak, but again the people and communities to decided if they shouldn't have them.

I know that's not a clear response, but we all know there's no drawback in running a specific mega, except for the kinda "bad" ones. Don't want to turn this thread into a Mega debate topic, just wanted to say my thoughts on the matter. Regardless, I'm still going to do my best in any format that requires or removes any megas for the site, and for my own growth as a comp. player, though with moderation.

[Black117]

Tapo Koko and "Electric Surge"

 

Its been awhile since Game Freak introduced a "trio" or part of a member of a potential legendary group, but about three months ago Tapu Koko was unveiled as a "guardian deity" of Melemele Island. Given with all legendary-based Pokemon groups like the Legendary Bird trio, Beast trio, "Golems" (referring to the Regis), Lake Guardians, Swords of Justice, and Forces of Nature, chances are Tapo Koko will have a high base stat total of either 580, or 600 depending on how "important" it is in terms of lore. Thing is, we aren't talking about the lore, no. Instead we want to know just how "powerful" or influential Tapo Koko will be with only the information given...and I believe it has potential.

Lets start off with its typing: Electric / Fairy (assuming no changes in the type chart). From defensive standpoint, Tapo Koko has a total of six resistances, but look carefully at those exact types: Flying-, Fighting-, Dark-, Bug-, Electric-, and one immunity to Dragon-type. Most of these types are somewhat offensive already, especially Flying-, and Dark-type so this makes Tapo Koko somewhat decent on the defensive end only being weak to Ground- and Poison-type. Now from an offensive perspective, here's a list of all the Pokemon that resist Electric-, and Fairy-type attacks (assuming it has Thunderbolt, and Dazzling Gleam as STABs).

Bulbasaur
Ivysaur
Venusaur
Nidoqueen
Nidoking
Oddish
Gloom
Vileplume
Bellsprout
Weepinbell
Victreebel
Magnemite
Magneton
Steelix
Roselia
Numel
Camerupt
Budew
Roserade
Magnezone
Excadrill
Foongus
Amoonguss
Ferroseed
Ferrothorn
Rotom
Venusaur
Camerupt
Groudon
Steelix

and Shedinja 

Already we can tell if Tapo Koko ever gets the move "Psychic", it will be on its movepool as other options to hit most Poison-types like Nidoqueen, Mega Venusaur, Roserade, etc. For "Hidden Power", normally Electric-type Pokemon have HP Ice to have perfect neutral coverage on their moveset, however notice the prevalence of Grass-, and Steel-types like Ferrothorn, Excadrill, and Magnezone who resist, or are immune to Tapo Koko's STAB types. Very likely we'll see Tapo Koko with HP Fire, and maybe the occasional HP Ice to hit x4 weak Ground-types like Landorus-T or Garchomp. 

For abilities, Electric Surge is honestly the most interesting ability released for Su/Mo yet as its the first "Terrain"-summoning field effect announced, specifically for Electric Terrain. Before we continue on the meat of the speculation, here are the list of effect Electric Terrain has on the field on "grounded" Pokemon:

• "Prevents Pokemon on the field from being put to sleep: Dark Void, Spore, Sleep Powder, Yawn, Rest, etc."
  
• "Increases the damage output of all Electric-type moves by 50%. Note this is only for "grounded" Pokemon so say Zapdos / Thundurus won't receive such a boost
  
• New Ability "Surge Surfer" will grant double the speed to the user if Electric terrain is up.
  
• From Pokemondb - "Electric Terrain is a new terrain condition and can coexist at the same time as weather conditions (but not other terrain conditions)." 
  
• Electric Terrain lasts up to 5 turns. 
  

While Electric Terrain didn't receive much use in either singles and doubles format, this generation looks like it, as well as the other Terrain moves might get summoning-like abilties similar to Drizzle, Drought, Sand, and Hail. Also note the last thing concerning Electric Terrain... it can stack with weather. The implications of this fact is rather huge as a player in a doubles battle format can send in Tapo Koko and Politoed to summon both the Rain and Electric Terrain at the same time...making a potential 50% boosted on Thunderbolt and Thunder hit incredibly hard to start off. Even if the Rain is removed, Tapo Koko can still get the 50% boost in its Electric-type attacks... and it still has the potential Held Item selection like Life Orb or Choice Specs.

Now lets assume given how "frail" Tapo Koko looks, as well as the Base Stat of other Legendary Electric-types like Zapdos (125), Thundurus (125), Thundurus-T (145), and Raikou (115)'s Special Attack. Most of these Electric-type Legendary Pokemon are mostly frail, but have moderately to high Special Attack and Speed. Lets Give Tapo Koko say 115 Special Attack (obviously not final), and lets slap a Choice Specs Thunder and Thunderbolt on that set, so here's some offensive damage calc (using "Raikou with 252 SpA timid or neutral nature). 

• 252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunder vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega Kangaskhan in Electric Terrain: 195-229 (108.3 - 127.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  
• 252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunder vs. 248 HP / 92 SpD Amoonguss in Electric Terrain: 105-123 (47.7 - 55.9%) -- 28.1% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
  
• 252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunder vs. 16 HP / 0 SpD Mega Gardevoir in Electric Terrain: 153-180 (105.5 - 124.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  
• 252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunder vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Sylveon in Electric Terrain: 156-184 (77.2 - 91%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
  
• 252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Tyranitar in Electric Terrain: 108-127 (52.1 - 61.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
  
• 252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 124 SpD Zapdos in Electric Terrain: 153-180 (77.6 - 91.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
  
• 252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunder vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Aegislash-Shield in Electric Terrain: 136-162 (81.4 - 97%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
  

So...that's what Specs Thunder with the Electric Terrain looks like using Raikou's 115 SpA for Tapo Koko. Anything higher and Tapo Koko can already start to 2HKO most of the metagame easily without using some rediculous special defense modifiers like AV or Light Screen. Like the potential damage output from these attacks is staggering to the point where Tapo Koko can essentially solo an entire team by spamming Thunder / Thunderbolt, while having its rain-partners deal with Ground- and Rock-type Pokemon. Also note even if Tapo Koko is a bit "frail" (lets hope so), it still resist Priority Gale Wing Brave Bird, Bullet Punch, Sucker Punch,Vaccum Wave, Mach Punch, and Pursuit to revenge kill. If Tapo Koko gains a strong Fairy-type move like Moonblast, it will be an invaluable asset on Rain-based teams as it can threaten both Tyranitar and Charizard Y, which is something Politoed normally has to judge around with. 

The only other "confirmed" information we have about Tapu Koko is that it gets the new move called Nature's Madness, which acts like Super Fang and halves the target HP. While this move might be useful for Tapo Koko to weaken resisted Pokemon for its ally, chances are very very likely people will spam the combination of Electric Terrain + Boosting Item to get a ton of damage output. As of this time, we do know that Tapo Koko is the "Guardian Deity" for one of the four natural Alolan Islands, so maybe... there are other Tapu's or Guardian Deities who might have similar Terrain-based abilities to counter-base Electric Surge and the insane damage output it emits. 

Again this is all pure "speculation" as the final BSTs allocation is what's going to "make" or "break" Tapo Koko. Who knows? Maybe the staff at Game Freak will think, " Hey lets give Tapo Koki a high attack stat, low speed /  special attack,  low stats, poor movepool, etc"...as troll freak has always done before. I mean this could happen, but chances are are looking rather great for Tapo Koko to have a huge impact in both the singles and doubles metagames. 

Edit: Oh forgot about how Electric Terrain prevents all Pokemon on the field from going to sleep. Is this the DV Smeargle counter we've been waiting for? Probably not, but interesting as things like Smeargle, Breloom, and Amoonguss specifically will be hit rather hard in viability if they can't spread sleep status in Doubles.

 

[Black117]

Silvally: The False Deity

For the past months, people have speculated how Type: Null origins and possibly how it might fit into the competitive scene. Most of these ideas were just speculation at the time, though there was a few who thought the Type: Null was a failed attempt to create "Arceus", or replicate it somehow. Well... this seemingly stretched out theory might be have some truth to it after all. 

Recently we've learned Type: Null evolves into the new Pokemon known as Silvally and this is where the similarities come to play. To start off, Silvally is a Normal-type Pokemon with the ability RKS System (....really Pokemon...) which basically is almost the same as Arceus's Multitype ability. The main difference between RKS System and Multitype is the items as Silvally needs a "Type Memory" to change into one of the 18 types (aside Normal-type).. Even Silvally's exclusive move called Multi-Attack, which again changed its type based on the "Memory", or corresponding type as Silvally. The only notable information we got out of Silvally is the Normal-type receives a substantial "speed boost" after breaking its helmet upon evolution. 

Even if we don't know the BST, movepool (aside Tri Attack, Muli-Attack), and other notable strengths / weaknesses about Silvally, here's the "thing". Remember what happen when we got a Pokemon who has the potential to have 18 different forms based on the entire type chart? Alright though Silvally might not fall in the "Ubers" category in the Smogon metagame, the fact players have THAT various options to customize this one Pokemon into multiple potential roles is incredible. 

Going extremely speculation mode, if Silvally get a similar high movepool (well that's vary diverse) as Arceus, it can have the coverage to hit everything in the game. Obviously such a Pokemon in the OU metagame will get the ban hammer, but lets say it doesn't and Sulvally along with its forms stay in the OU, and below. Not only people will have to deal with the regular "Normal-type" variants of Silvally, but the other different type combinations as well. The other Silvallly forms might drop in usage depending on which forms become "popular" by the players, and how best it suits the metagame.

Even in Doubles, Silvally can potentially fit into any role, but it really depends on the Base Stat Totals it gets. If Silvally gets around a 540-555 BST with high speed, then I could see potential in this Pokemon, but anything lower and it has to perform its role well enough. Even though we still don't know anything about Silvally aside the blatantly obvious  Arceus references, this Pokemon's forms has the potential to directly influence the upcoming Su/Mo metagames on both Singles and Doubles.

[GiMYz]

Right now i think Silvally might find a role in VGC only if it has a very solid movepool and a high BST (something around 600) simply because it probably needs to hold its Type Memory item (which drastically limits its potential, sets and roles) and also because a mono-type Pokemon has to be broken in some way (Parental Bond M-Kang and Pixilate Sylveon ..for example) to have a particular impact in the metagame.

[GiMYz]

I've given a look at the National Pokedex and..


..Smeargle :D

I wonder if there is an Ultra Beast that can setup as fast as Xerneas

[Black117]

According to some of the players who played tested the demo, they've confirmed that Paralysis has now been nerfed to a 50% speed drop increase as well as confusion only "hitting" the user about 33% of the time. This likely might be a response to the infamous Swagger Thunder Wave combination as a Pokemon induced with both ailments have around a 66% chance of not moving for that turn. Also heard that Thunder Wave's accuracy has been dropped from 100% to 90%, meaning there's now a "risk" involve using this move. It it still accurate, but at 10% chance to miss can leave most players in using other speed control options.

[Hernansanz]

So basically now Thunder Wave is more like Will O Wisp. I think 90% is still good chance, tho.

[Black117]

Thing about Thunder Wave is the move has been moderately risk free with the speed reduction and the quarter chance of full paralysis. The "nerf" was rather off at first, but I've noticed there was a tweet from Cybertron which highlights how Game Freak usually "nerfs" thing that are heavily used in the VGC scene. Such examples include Gems (well they were removed), weather, and even Protect. With the recent news that confusion also got nerf to one third instead of half and I'm beginning to think Game Freak does pay attention somewhat to the VGC metagame, but in between generations.